7500 To Holte: FanPosts

Preseason Fixtures 2013

2013-05-22T12:15:51Z

Is this Paul Lambert's way of returning the favor to Germany for his Champions League medal? I guess back-to-back trips to the US was probably too much to ask. From the OS:

July 10th: @ SV Rodinghausen
July 12th @ SC Paderborn
July 14th: @ VFL Bochum

July 20th: @ Wycombe Wanderers
July 23rd: @ Luton Town
July 26th: @ Crewe
July 31st: @ Walsall
August 4th: @ Shamrock Rovers

August 10th: Malaga

Hopefully this year's preseason is a little less frantic as 2012. A repeat similar to seeing Gabby get hurt in Chicago and Stephen Warnock ending his Villa career at Nottingham Forest would make this a little too engaging for my taste.

Is this Paul Lambert's way of returning the favor to Germany for his Champions League medal? I guess back-to-back trips to the US was probably too much to ask. From the OS:

July 10th: @ SV Rodinghausen
July 12th @ SC Paderborn
July 14th: @ VFL Bochum

July 20th: @ Wycombe Wanderers
July 23rd: @ Luton Town
July 26th: @ Crewe
July 31st: @ Walsall
August 4th: @ Shamrock Rovers

August 10th: Malaga

Why Darren Bent needs to go

2013-04-29T23:18:34Z

Darren Bent moved to Aston Villa in January of 2011. At this time, he worked wonderfully giving Aston Villa a finisher to help Villa finish in the top half of the table for the 2010-2011 season. However, that summer Ashley Young and Stewart Downing and their marksmen crosses left Aston Villa. This meant that AVFC no longer had anyone that could cross the ball in and let the poacher that is Darren Bent work his magic. AVFC brought in Charles N'Zogbia to help this void and potentially use their youngsters to fill the other wing. This did not work and was part of the reason (along with that damn ginger of a coach) why Villa was almost relegated. That brings to us to this year. Bent has been off or on injured through out the year. When he has been on the pitch he has done little to no damage. This is once again because we have no wingers. The best crosses I have seen this year have come from Lowton. Benteke has been solid this year because he does not depend on others for him to score goals. Darren Bent is the exact opposite. He is a poacher and can not create his own shots. Darren Bent has talent and would work well in other systems. Villa needs to sell him and scrap whatever money we can get (hopefully 10-12 million), and use the cash and the money we'll get from the NBC TV deal to add an attacking midfielder who can score (someone like Milner...oh I miss him), a winger to take pressure off the fullbacks feeling like they have to come forward to add width to the attack, or/and an experienced left back b/c Joe Bennett has not impressed this year.

Poll

If AVFC sells Darren Bent, what position should they bolster?

Forward

0 votes

Attacking Midfielder

3 votes

Fullback

1 votes

Winger

1 votes

Central Defender

1 votes

6 votes | Poll has closed

Desperation: The Threat Of Relegation From The Premier League

2013-03-20T01:24:15Z

Not specifically about Aston Villa, but contains information on how some Premier League teams improve their form when under the threat of relegation.

Originally featured here

I wrote a piece on Bitter and Blue in November which showed, in very basic form, how 4 out of 6 relegation threatened teams in 2011/12 markedly improved their form in the second half of the season.

The threat of relegation was very real for Wolves, Blackburn, Bolton, Villa, Wigan and QPR. All but Villa, who were relatively comfortable, and the doomed Wolves improved their points tallies in the second half:

2011/12

	1st	2nd
Wigan	15	28
Villa	23	15
QPR	17	20
Bolton	13	23
Blackburn	14	17
Wolves	17	8

2011/12 Per Quarter

	9 games	10 games	10 games	9 games
	Aug 14-Oct 23rd	Oct 24th-Dec 31st	Jan 1st-Mar 18th	Mar 19th- May 13th
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Wigan	0.55	1	0.7	2.33
Villa	1.22	1.2	1	0.55
QPR	1.33	0.5	0.8	1.33
Bolton	0.66	0.7	1.3	1.11
Blackburn	0.55	0.9	1.4	0.33
Wolves	0.88	0.9	0.5	0.33

Wigan’s 4th quarter ppg is almost unbelievable but for the fact it actually happened. 2.33 ppg over 38 games gives you a Manchester-esque total of 88.54 points. That is how good/lucky/unrepeatable Wigan’s run-in form was in 2011/12

That was last years data, what does this years data look like for the current bottom Six?

2012/13

	1-10	11-20	21-30
Sunderland	0.9	1.3	1
Southampton	0.4	1.4	1.3
Villa	0.9	0.9	1.2
Wigan	1.1	0.7	1
Reading	0.6	0.7	1
QPR	0.3	0.7	1.3

* Wigan have only played 9 games in the 21-30 segment. they have recorded 9 points

Naturally, we can only split the season into 1/3rd’s right now. The home stretch is still to be played.

5 out of the 6 teams had the worst ‘segment’ of form in the 1st quarter of the season.

3 of the 6 teams have had their best spell of form in the 3rd quarter of the season.

Every team has scored 1ppg or higher in the 3rd quarter.

Points Per game Form: PL 2012/13

In The Relegation Zone

Reading have picked up the ppg form slightly, Wigan are flat and haven’t yet gone on their annual charge. QPR are improving but it’s a big ask from here on out.

Outside The Relegation Zone

Villa are consistent at around 1ppg, Southampton have registered improvement and Sunderland, who I have a good bit of money on to be relegated at 18/1 due to their shockingly bad early season SoTR, appear to be on the slide yet again.

Conclusion

Do teams exhibit improved ppg form as the season wears on when threatened with relegation? Well, some teams do and some don’t. We could really do with a sample size larger than tiny, but I don’t have the time to dig up all 20 PL seasons so this will have to suffice.

Last year 4 of the 6 teams’ ppg numbers improved in the 2nd half, and this year we have seen all teams register above 1 ppg in the 3rd quarter. For 3 of those teams that was the best segment of performance this year.

It’ll be interesting to see how the 4th quarter of the season plays out, but don’t be surprised to see some teams exhibit abnormally high ppg numbers in the final segment when compared to their previous 3 segments of the season. Desperation.

Not specifically about Aston Villa, but contains information on how some Premier League teams improve their form when under the threat of relegation.

Originally featured here

I wrote a piece on Bitter and Blue in November which showed, in very basic form, how 4 out of 6 relegation threatened teams in 2011/12 markedly improved their form in the second half of the season.

2011/12

	1st	2nd
Wigan	15	28
Villa	23	15
QPR	17	20
Bolton	13	23
Blackburn	14	17
Wolves	17	8

2011/12 Per Quarter

	9 games	10 games	10 games	9 games
	Aug 14-Oct 23rd	Oct 24th-Dec 31st	Jan 1st-Mar 18th	Mar 19th- May 13th
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Wigan	0.55	1	0.7	2.33
Villa	1.22	1.2	1	0.55
QPR	1.33	0.5	0.8	1.33
Bolton	0.66	0.7	1.3	1.11
Blackburn	0.55	0.9	1.4	0.33
Wolves	0.88	0.9	0.5	0.33

That was last years data, what does this years data look like for the current bottom Six?

2012/13

	1-10	11-20	21-30
Sunderland	0.9	1.3	1
Southampton	0.4	1.4	1.3
Villa	0.9	0.9	1.2
Wigan	1.1	0.7	1
Reading	0.6	0.7	1
QPR	0.3	0.7	1.3

* Wigan have only played 9 games in the 21-30 segment. they have recorded 9 points

Naturally, we can only split the season into 1/3rd’s right now. The home stretch is still to be played.

5 out of the 6 teams had the worst ‘segment’ of form in the 1st quarter of the season.

3 of the 6 teams have had their best spell of form in the 3rd quarter of the season.

Every team has scored 1ppg or higher in the 3rd quarter.

Points Per game Form: PL 2012/13

In The Relegation Zone

Reading have picked up the ppg form slightly, Wigan are flat and haven’t yet gone on their annual charge. QPR are improving but it’s a big ask from here on out.

Outside The Relegation Zone

Conclusion

Football Is Business

2013-03-08T12:28:36Z

The expected ramifications commonly associated with the influx of money to a football club, invariably from abroad, have been shaped largely by the most successful cases. Manchester City, and Chelsea prior, are the standout examples in English football of financially-bred fruition and with Paris-Saint-Germain set to dominate French football for the foreseeable future with their Qatari funds, Real Madrid and Barcelona in a Liga of their own in terms of turnover, television benefits and of course, quality football, the correlation between financial and footballing prowess is now not only an evident trend, but an entirely dominant one.

Perhaps the only true commonality between all of these clubs of apparent stature is that they have become more than just football clubs, but brands as well. For some, including Madrid and Barcelona, Manchester United and certainly the German juggernaut, Bayern Munich, the global image and exportability has come over years of shrewd popularisation of the football played and undoubtedly, an element of good fortune. These traditional clubs, so to speak, are now being challenged by the nouveau riche, PSG probably the most potent of teams to find (or at least be on the brink of) success as a result of an inexhaustible money source.

Admittedly, there is something uncomfortable about the description of football clubs as “brands”, particularly given the perpetual lamenting of the sport’s ineluctable commercialisation. While it is deemed by many as an unsavoury progression in the modern game, in many respects “football is business rather than sport,” in the words of Zdneck Zeman just last year. The authorities appear to have had enough, too, of these monopolising brands and this summer will see the introduction of Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules, seeking to penalise any club that cannot justify its expenditure on athletic talent with a turnover to offset it.

While the impact of the FFP introduction is yet to be seen, there are already indications that it will not have the desired effect for those sides that are barely capable of achieving self-sufficiency, let alone creating an image of eminence. The question has been raised as to whether FIFA will punish any of the top sides accordingly if they do indeed break their new rules. Champions League football is essential for Europe’s elite and the cornerstone of most clubs’ ambitions every season. The suggestion is that sanctions by FIFA for non-compliance with FFP would include automatic disqualification from the tournament, as has already happened to Malaga for next season after failure to pay bills. However, the likelihood of the authorities banning a Real Madrid, a Manchester City or a Paris-Saint-Germain from future competitions, in regard of their important branding and ability to promote and sell tickets, television rights and the competitions themselves, is unlikely.

Even more significant, though, is the fact that these huge clubs use their brand power to ensure that no matter how much they spend, turnover will always be greater, essentially rendering them immune to sanctions in any case. In reality, Financial Fair Play will serve only to punish those clubs lacking in self-sufficiency, when in fact these were the clubs it was supposed to help become more competitive.

Aston Villa: A Brand Forced Into Remission

It would be decidedly unnatural for a supporter of any top flight club to have banished or entirely avoided the consideration of a big-money takeover of their club. The peculiar thing for Aston Villa fans, who probably ponder the idea regularly given their current plight, is that it’s already happened – supposedly.

Brand generation, or perhaps regeneration, given Villa’s size and history, was underway at Villa Park following Randy Lerner’s arrival as the new owner of the club in 2006. The club crest, along with the team management, was adapted to fit the sense of a new start that arrived with the American. The simplest of brand initiatives though a logo may be, it was an indictment of the changes that the club was to undergo under this new management. Lerner, having paid in the region of £62.6 million for Villa, wanted to elevate them once again to a former greatness, with Champions League football the natural ambition.

The rest is history, as one might say in the knowledge that readers are fully aware of Martin O’Neill’s deceptive and ultimately detrimental advancements with a young, English-based, counter-attacking outfit that finished sixth place in the Premier League for three consecutive seasons. The price of Lerner’s financial trust in the Northern Irishman led to wild over-spending on players who were for the most part entirely incapable of giving Aston Villa long-term service, let alone long-term success. Champions League football was missed out on, albeit narrowly, and Lerner had either run out of money, or run out of interest – a question that has still not been adequately answered even today.

The new brand failed after its three-year launch. Three managers later and Villa are in the worst Premier League position they have been since the new format’s inception in 1991. Relegation is on the cards for a team made up of youth and inexperience, with a smattering of older players who have shunned responsibility and a faint sprinkling of quality that will soon be out the door.

Defeat against Manchester City on Monday night was something of an inevitable representation of the Villans’ campaign, with a growth in confidence and a genuine opportunity destroyed by moments of lacking concentration or simply, a shortage of ability.

The truth is that Aston Villa are now playing in a period of irrelevance, both in terms of their own history and that of the English top flight. They are not competing, as they were a few years ago, and they are barely surviving either. But is there any option given that on Saturday, the club revealed huge losses of around £17.7 million for the year ending May 31, 2012, which was in fact a huge reduction from the £53.9 million losses the year before. The club cited reasons such as a poor performance the year before, fewer live TV matches and lower crowd attendances. The obvious nature of these suggestions hardly adds enough comedy to make the reading bearable for Villa supporters but at least it gives cold, hard financial reasoning to the desperate weakness of Paul Lambert’s squad and the unacceptable standard of the performances this campaign. Or does it?

Surely that isn’t good enough – not for a club like Aston Villa. One of the traditional clubs in English football, with an enviable support base, they are now undoubtedly one of the examples of an unsuccessful takeover story and something must change in the near future.

It’s a bitter pill to swallow – the realisation that money is everything in football – but one that must be digested quickly at Villa Park. The few good players will leave, there will be no draw for others to join, and the club will fall hard. This will happen, but it can be rectified, with a new direction.

There is little question that Randy Lerner cares greatly about the club but his Aston Villa brand has failed because of poor mismanagement so early on. Football is a business as fickle as the fans who frequent its stadiums and it is time for Lerner to remove the emotion from it, and sell the club.

The issue of who exactly would want to buy it is a fundamental one, of course, but perhaps not as pertinent as the question as to how the Villa support would feel about the club being taken over once again, with potentially unpredictable results, and the possibility of a total makeover of this great, old club.

Aston Villa: A Brand Forced Into Remission

Poll

Would you be happy to see Villa taken over again?

Villa should persist with Lerner

1 votes

Villa need to change hands

1 votes

Ownership is not the main issue

1 votes

3 votes | Poll has closed

In support of Brad Guzan, the Premier League's most underrated goalkeeper.

2013-03-04T23:46:43Z

Tonight I sat in my seat in the Trinity Road Stand and watched Aston Villa lose 1-0 to Manchester City in sickening fashion, but one shining light of the game for me was (again) the performance of Brad Guzan. I genuinely believe Brad is easily the most underrated goalkeeper in the Premier League and has the potential to be world class.

If you haven't done so yet, just try watching Brad for a game. Whatever else is going on on the pitch, keep an eye on Brad. Whenever Villa lose, look back and consider how much heavier a defeat it might have been if not for Brad.

Brad is an excellent shot stopper. He makes reflex saves the type of which we often see world class keepers making. He controls his penalty area. He is not afraid to put himself where it hurts, and will confidently claim balls that would have David De Gea rolling around on the floor. Brad Guzan is one of the toughest, no nonsense goalkeepers in the Premier League today.

Why is Brad Guzan so shamefully ignored by pundits? Who cares? The longer he goes unnoticed for, the better for Aston Villa. Brad Guzan is 28 years old. Two more years, he could easily be one of the world's best.

Take note, Herr Klinsmann.

Some Simon Dawkins positivity

2013-02-02T03:07:52Z

A Twitter friend of mine (SB Nation user mysterui) is a performance analyst with Sporting KC, and he had this to say about our new friend Simon Dawkinsr:

@lazyrasmus I like Dawkins a lot, man. He can drift in and out, but the dude has so much skill
— Rui Xu (@rui_xu) February 1, 2013

I've been following soccer for less than two years now, so I am still learning. But this sounds like at least a sliver of hope.

A Twitter friend of mine (SB Nation user mysterui) is a performance analyst with Sporting KC, and he had this to say about our new friend Simon Dawkinsr:

@lazyrasmus I like Dawkins a lot, man. He can drift in and out, but the dude has so much skill
— Rui Xu (@rui_xu) February 1, 2013

I've been following soccer for less than two years now, so I am still learning. But this sounds like at least a sliver of hope.

Some Simon Dawkins positivity

2013-02-02T03:06:48Z

An Twitter friend of mine (SB Nation user mysterui) is a performance analyst with Sporting KC, and he had this to say about our new friend Simon Dawkinsr:

@lazyrasmus I like Dawkins a lot, man. He can drift in and out, but the dude has so much skill
— Rui Xu (@rui_xu) February 1, 2013

I've been following soccer for less than two years now, so I am still learning. But this sounds like at least a sliver of hope.

An Twitter friend of mine (SB Nation user mysterui) is a performance analyst with Sporting KC, and he had this to say about our new friend Simon Dawkinsr:

@lazyrasmus I like Dawkins a lot, man. He can drift in and out, but the dude has so much skill
— Rui Xu (@rui_xu) February 1, 2013

I've been following soccer for less than two years now, so I am still learning. But this sounds like at least a sliver of hope.

Why are we so afraid of relegation? Some thoughts.

2013-01-23T02:31:00Z

I've had this post in my head for a few days now. As I sit here on my sofa, having just arrived home from watching Villa's League Cup exit to Bradford City, I thought what better time to post it? I'm not going to talk about Bradford. What's done is done. This is concerning the other pesky monkey that plagues the thoughts of Villa fans in recent times: Relegation.

First of all it seems sensible to look at exactly what is going wrong with the team, and personally I can see three very obviously glaring areas for development:

Aston Villa cannot defend corners. Or free kicks. I don't know why, we just can't. It's been a problem for three years now.
We don't use the wings enough. When we do, most of the time the ball is run into a corner and the hapless player on the ball has nobody backing him up. The team doesn't support each other.
If Barry Bannan is our best corner-kick taker then I'm Zsa Zsa Gabor.

What to do about all of this I don't know, that's a discussion for another time. Now, I don't WANT to see Villa relegated and I never will, but I've found myself asking why Villa fans are so afraid of it. Is it because we've never experienced it before? I have a friend who is a Blackburn Rovers fan and my father is a life-long Norwich City fan and they both say the same about relegation: "It's not the end of the world".

Villa fans don't want to be relegated. We are a Premier League ever present. We are one of the most successful trophy winning clubs in English football history. Playing outside the top tier to most fans is both embarrassing and unthinkable. But I am a fan too, recently I have become quite disillusioned with football and I think I finally know why. The Premier League bores me.

TV will tell us it's the best league in the world, but we all KNOW what to expect from a Premier League season. We all KNOW that Team Manchester will finish in the top two slots. We all KNOW that the remaining Champions League places will go to two of Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. We all KNOW that Wigan Athletic will flirt with relegation before pulling it round after February. We all KNOW that Villa will go 2-0 up against Manchester United and eventually lose. We all KNOW that Martin O'Neill and Harry Redknapp will be completely impervious to media criticism no matter how bad Sunderland and QPR get. We know which clubs will finish around mid-table, and which will struggle. There really aren't any talking points anymore. The Premier League, for whatever reason, has become predictable and dull.

Compare this with the Championship; If, as looks likely, Cardiff City finally manage promotion this year, the league's only certainty is gone. Once you're in it, the Championship is a fiendishly difficult division to get out of. Some teams manage it, some go the other way. So what would Championship Aston Villa be like? Would we compete at the top? Would we be playoff contenders? Would we have to settle for mid-table obscurity, or would we struggle yet again?
Which players would leave? Which players would stay? Which players would we bring in? It is inevitable that relegation would result in the losses of Darren Bent, Charles N'Zogbia and Christian Benteke, but can we say that about anybody else?

What would the crowds at Villa Park be like? If we do well, would attendances rise? Would Randy reduce ticket prices? Would the moaning clique finally give up altogether and stay at home every other week? Would this lead to a more positive home crowd more willing to give their support for the team?

So many questions, none of which I feel I can answer. What I can say Villa fans would experience in the Championship is a whole new plethora of away days. On a personal level this would mean trips to Huddersfield Town, where I went to university, and (provided they do not also suffer relegation) Bristol City, one of my favourite cities. There are more clubs from the Midlands in the Championship. We can enjoy trips to Wolves, Birmingham City, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City and Derby County. Premier League away days are fun, but I've done them, and I can't deny that a change would appeal to me.

So why are we so afraid of relegation? I can honestly think that it is only the embarrassment of being outside the top flight, but that would pass. There would be new challenges, different teams to face. It's taken me a long time to come to this realisation but I can't deny it any longer: I don't want to see Villa get relegated, but on the whole, I would enjoy watching the Championship more.

First of all it seems sensible to look at exactly what is going wrong with the team, and personally I can see three very obviously glaring areas for development:

Aston Villa cannot defend corners. Or free kicks. I don't know why, we just can't. It's been a problem for three years now.
We don't use the wings enough. When we do, most of the time the ball is run into a corner and the hapless player on the ball has nobody backing him up. The team doesn't support each other.
If Barry Bannan is our best corner-kick taker then I'm Zsa Zsa Gabor.

Steve Davis Questions Guzan With Silly Observations

2012-12-28T17:15:47Z

I really do like Steve Davis a lot, but this is kind of a crummy article. It seems like he's trying to draw a pretty loosely dotted line from Villa's recent drubbings directly to Guzan's play or leadership. I get that asking questions of Brad is the natural result of 12 goals against over the last two games, but surely some of this has to be chalked up to an inability to hold the ball in quality possession for any amount of time. I'd also be more understanding of asking those questions if Guzan had gotten all of the credit for a stretch of six games in which the club gave up three goals.

But he wasn't. So I'm not.

Looking back over the fixtures in November and December, it's possible to draw a potential correlation between Villa's possession numbers and the results in the game:

Wins:
Sunderland - 46%
Reading - 52%
Norwich City - 55%
Liverpool - 39%

Draws:
Arsenal - 50%
QPR - 50%
Stoke - 60%

Losses:
Manchester City - 41%
Chelsea - 37%
Tottenham - 39%
Manchester United - 36%

So while I think it's fair to question a young backline and how it is getting along with the keeper, it seems kind of lazy to just assume that the club needs a more veteran voice that is leading from the back. In any case, maybe writing a throw away article (in which he claims Villa are in the drop zone) during the Holidays when no one will read it while bored at work is more of a common thing than I'm willing to give credit.

But he wasn't. So I'm not.

Looking back over the fixtures in November and December, it's possible to draw a potential correlation between Villa's possession numbers and the results in the game:

Wins:
Sunderland - 46%
Reading - 52%
Norwich City - 55%
Liverpool - 39%

Draws:
Arsenal - 50%
QPR - 50%
Stoke - 60%

Losses:
Manchester City - 41%
Chelsea - 37%
Tottenham - 39%
Manchester United - 36%

QoO (Difficulty of PL fixture list): 19 Games

2012-12-28T00:04:11Z

This post is scheduled to feature on Bitter and Blue tomorrow, but noting the amount of Villa related content I thought I could post this as a fan post right here.

Quality of opposition, or the difficulty of each teams fixture list ,may sound like a wacky idea but in fact it is very simple. Most teams have played 19 games, and thus each opponent on one occasion, thus logic dictates that every team has had as difficult a fixture list as each other. But that is not the case.

Teams' form fluctuates throughout the season and thus playing a fixture against a team in red hot form and 2nd in the table is not the same as playing that same team in poor form when they have dropped to 6th in the table. Chelsea are an excellent example of this.

A fixture against the Blues in the first 7 games was a very tough game, but if you had played a fixture against them in week 13 it was against a team in poor form who had dropped to 4th. A tough game in week 13, no doubt, but not quite as tough.

QoO is an attempt at factoring in that Chelsea example by using the league position of the opponent at the time of fixture.

Simply put, some teams have played more games against teams in the top half than others have, despite each club having played all 19 teams at some point so far.

Half Way: 19 game Quality of Opposition table

Instead of just listing the oppositions league position I shall use a weighted system. So a fixture against the the 1st place team in the EPL be a 20 difficulty rating. A fixture against the 20th placed side will have a 1 difficulty rating.

So, the higher the Quality of Opposition average total is, the more difficult the schedule. The higher the number the harder the schedule.

This is each teams weighted average QoO table. The difficulty of each teams individual fixture list can be seen above.

Remember, I am using the opponents league position for each fixture then recording it, weighting it for difficulty and turning it into an average.

Spurs and Chelsea are two of the big teams that have had a difficult QoO fixture list and have faced teams higher in the table. United and Arsenal are two big teams that have had an easy fixture list in comparison to the league average.

Some teams have simply had a harder first 19 games than others. They have played the same opponents, but their opponents may have been higher or lower in the table at the time of fixture than some other teams have faced. The difference between Aston Villa, who have the hardest weighted QoO and Fulham is significant.

Aston Villa, on average, have faced an opponent that is 3 places higher in the table than Fulham has faced. That is 3 places higher in the table for every single fixture played and that potentially may have impacted their points total so far. Is it a stretch of the imagination to say that if Aston Villa had had fixtures against teams in poorer form, to the extent that Fulham have had, that their points total would not be higher?

The Most Difficult QoO schedule

Here is Villa's individual QoO. The purple line indicates Villa's moving average QoO fixture list and the yellow line indicates individual fixture and their difficulty rating. Remember a game against 20th place gets a 1 rating and a game against 1st place gets a 20 rating.

The yellow line for the difficulty of each individual fixture tells us something startling about Aston Villa's fixture list. It is that Aston Villa, through 19 games, have played against a team in the bottom half of the table just twice, games 9 and 10.The ratings for those games were 6 and 7 (15th and 14th in the table).

Villa have played 5 games against teams who occupied a place in the top 3 at the time of fixture. In short, Villa's fixture list has been absolutely brutal. Cruel, even. For some reason the timing and date of their fixtures has seen Villa play 17 out of their 19 fixtures against teams in the top half of the table, all this despite naturally playing all 19 teams in the league.

The easiest QoO schedule

Here, when looking at the easiest weighted fixture list we can see the difference between Villa's and Fulham's. Fulham, despite poor form, have had 11 fixtures against teams who occupied a place in the bottom half of the table at the time of fixture.

Man City's QoO schedule--Average Strength

Man City's schedule is bang on the league average mean line. Six games against the bottom six and six games against the top six.

Thanks for reading. Any questions, please fire away.

Follow shuddertothink on Twitter

This post is scheduled to feature on Bitter and Blue tomorrow, but noting the amount of Villa related content I thought I could post this as a fan post right here.

QoO is an attempt at factoring in that Chelsea example by using the league position of the opponent at the time of fixture.

Simply put, some teams have played more games against teams in the top half than others have, despite each club having played all 19 teams at some point so far.

Half Way: 19 game Quality of Opposition table

So, the higher the Quality of Opposition average total is, the more difficult the schedule. The higher the number the harder the schedule.

This is each teams weighted average QoO table. The difficulty of each teams individual fixture list can be seen above.

Remember, I am using the opponents league position for each fixture then recording it, weighting it for difficulty and turning it into an average.

The Most Difficult QoO schedule

The easiest QoO schedule

Man City's QoO schedule--Average Strength

Man City's schedule is bang on the league average mean line. Six games against the bottom six and six games against the top six.

Thanks for reading. Any questions, please fire away.

Follow shuddertothink on Twitter

It's Time To Move On From Darren Bent

2012-10-28T22:31:15Z

We still have two months before the transfer window will open again, but it's not too early to start thinking about what Aston Villa needs to do during that time to hold off the threat of relegation. Obviously there are many needs on this roster, but to fulfill those needs I believe there's really only one move Villa can take.

It's time to say goodbye to Darren Bent.

Hell, I wonder if Paul Lambert hasn't already done so already. It's entirely possible that Lambert would have like to sell off Bent over the summer, but with Darren recovering from an injury he couldn't get full value for him. Now, if Villa do sell Bent this January, they're not going to come close to the £19 or £24 million we spent to get him from Sunderland two years ago.

Still, he's the most valuable commodity on this team that we can afford to part ways with.

There's no denying that when it comes to putting the ball in the net, there is nobody better on the team than Bent. The problem is that scoring goals is the only thing he knows how to do. Teams that have a lot of talent elsewhere can live with that.

Aston Villa is not one of those teams.

Bent can't score on his own. He needs service, and has been painfully obvious around here since Stewart Downing and Ashley Young left Villa Park, there's nobody on this squad that can provide it for him on a regular basis.

By selling Bent Paul Lambert would get a nice infusion of cash to go out and get somebody who could though. Which is something this team needs more than a goal-scorer.

With a creative mid-fielder the offensive attack on this team would improve tremendously. I have nothing against Karim El Ahmadi -- in fact, I quite like him -- but he certainly isn't the answer. We all know it's not Fabian Delph.

The rest of the midfield? Did you know that Samuel Beckett's original play was titled "Waiting for Stephen Ireland?"

I know there are Barry Bannan fans on this site. Why they're Barry Bannan fans, I'm not entirely sure.

I like what I've seen from Brett Holman, but he's not quite good enough to be a team's main distributor on the attack. He's a complimentary piece.

So who is this player that Villa needs? I don't have anybody in mind. I just know that I'd prefer somebody who has already proven he's capable in this league. Which is why we would need to sell Bent to get him, because players like that aren't cheap.

Hell, I'll sell Gabriel Agbonlahor too if that'll give Lambert more money to spend. Gabby hasn't done much of anything besides get hurt in recent seasons, and if Martin O'Neill and Sunderland were truly interested in him over the summer, maybe they still are.

He's provided Villa with nothing anyway. I think this team could survive with Benteke and Wiemann up front if that duo has somebody who can find them in the box consistently enough.

It's painfully obvious that the status quo isn't working. And when things are broke, you fix them.

Selling Bent is how Villa starts.

It's time to say goodbye to Darren Bent.

Still, he's the most valuable commodity on this team that we can afford to part ways with.

Aston Villa is not one of those teams.

By selling Bent Paul Lambert would get a nice infusion of cash to go out and get somebody who could though. Which is something this team needs more than a goal-scorer.

The rest of the midfield? Did you know that Samuel Beckett's original play was titled "Waiting for Stephen Ireland?"

I know there are Barry Bannan fans on this site. Why they're Barry Bannan fans, I'm not entirely sure.

I like what I've seen from Brett Holman, but he's not quite good enough to be a team's main distributor on the attack. He's a complimentary piece.

He's provided Villa with nothing anyway. I think this team could survive with Benteke and Wiemann up front if that duo has somebody who can find them in the box consistently enough.

It's painfully obvious that the status quo isn't working. And when things are broke, you fix them.

Selling Bent is how Villa starts.

Which USA player would you like to see in a Villa shirt?

2012-09-12T10:57:10Z

Myself like others were totally hooked on that final day "transfer deadline day". I work about 10mins away from Villa Park and I currently hold a season ticket to the mighty claret and blue so transfer deadline day is always special to me as i watch my team try and buy players to improve on the dreadful last season.

I found myself browsing on every villa site looking for the latest transfers and tried to separate the genuine rumours from the Kaka to villa rumours. It was about 10.00am when i received a message from my manager telling me that villa had agreed a deal for Clint Dempsey with Fulham. I was like a little kid at Christmas at the thought of Dempsey playing for Aston Villa. I am a huge admirer of our American "soccer" players with brilliant players such as Brad Guzan (Guzan over Given any day) and Eric lichaj. When Dempsey turned down the chance to join in favour of a move to Liverpool my heart was ripped out and thrown in the bin as always from following my local club.

Ok, so my question is; Which USA soccer player would you like to see in a villa shirt? The reason I ask is because I have little knowledge of soccer in the states but most players that have made it across the pond and played in the premier league have been a success.

StatsZone Corner: The Added Benefit Of Brad Guzan

2012-09-03T21:42:14Z

This is a really interesting look at Brad Guzan's distribution on Sunday that is absolutely worth your time to read. -Robert

How's it going everyone? I'm relatively new here (been following the blog for a while now, just registered) and love the tactical aspect of the game, using tools like StatsZone and video to uncover interesting angles and to help examine them. This may or may not be a reoccurring series, depending on how much you guys like it and how much time I have on my end. Anyway, onto the purpose of this post.

For yesterday's game against Newcastle, Paul Lambert decided to go with Brad Guzan instead of Shay Given, who had been the team's starting goalie for the first two games. This was obviously due to form, as Given struggled to start the season, and Guzan repaid Lambert by making some fine saves and helping Villa get their first point of the season and getting the team out of the relegation places for the time being. However, it wasn't just the saves that impressed me about Guzan. As the game went on, it was obvious that there were other aspects of Guzan's game that really helped Villa.

This is a really interesting look at Brad Guzan's distribution on Sunday that is absolutely worth your time to read. -Robert

Something that struck me when watching the game today was the accuracy of Brad Guzan's long balls, whether they were goal kicks, kicks coming after saves from Guzan, or even throws. This lead me to do some investigating after the game. Fiddling around with StatsZone, I wanted to compare Guzan's ball distribution to Given's in his first two starts (I avoided using last year's numbers for Given because it didn't seem to make sense to use numbers from a different system/style of play). Looking at Guzan's passes against Newcastle you can see a difference between himself and Given.

Looking at Guzan's play compared to Given's against Everton, you can see that Guzan completed passes at a higher rate, completing about 71.1% of his passes compared to 53.7% from Shay Given. Also, look at where all these passes are going. Guzan's pass chart ends up with a lot of blue arrows over midfield with a good chunk of those passes towards the middle of the field. Compare that who was spraying the ball all around the field, relying on more short passes to the wings than anything.

That leads us to comparing Guzan's passes to Given's passes against West Ham. Even when Given is completing a high rate of passes, which he did against West Ham (connecting on about 75% of his passes), it's not putting Villa in an attacking position.

Again, looking at the passing charts you see a significant difference in the style of play. Guzan going deep towards the middle, looking to start an attacking sequence with Given opting for short passes to a wing, forcing Villa's defenders (who usually are receiving these short passes) to play the ball out of the back.

~~Here is a link to a video I put together showing Guzan's long passes (I wanted to embed it here, but due to rights, YouTube isn't letting me):~~

~~Video~~ [Note: The video has been pulled thanks to the EPL being obnoxious. Sorry. -R]

Watching the video, you can see the advantage of playing long balls from the goalie. If they connect (which is what happened 71% of his passes) Villa is instantly in a threatening position with the ball, looking to get on the attack. Even if the pass isn't complete, you are still putting the opposition on their back foot, forcing their defenders and midfielders to play the ball from the back, and allowing Villa to pressure the ball. It was obvious that Lambert wanted to pressure Newcastle all over the field and these long passes allowed them to, even when they lost possession immediately. Guzan will obviously be starting the next match and it will be interesting to see how these numbers develop as he continues to play. Definitely something worth watching.

Portland Timbers Official News Release Aston Villa 2 (5) - Portland Timbers 2 (4) Villa win on Penalty Kicks

2012-07-25T16:58:29Z

To view the official news release click on the link below.

http://www.columbian.com/weblogs/portland-timbers/2012/jul/25/timbers-official-news-release-timbers-2-villa-2-vi/

Some quotes from Lambert after the game...

Aston Villa Quotes

Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert

Thoughts on the game: “I enjoyed it. It was good experience. I suggested [Portland] would be difficult for us. I’m delighted the way we played and delighted we won the game. I thought some of our football was very good and when the lads made changes I thought some of our football was good.”

Thoughts on the “Support Stan” cheer from the crowd: “[I felt] Great because I played with him for the best part of nine years at Celtic so I know him really well. Hopefully he’s going to end up OK. He’s fighting hard at the minute in appreciation of the fans.”

Thoughts on the MLS sides Aston Villa faced: “I think there’s been some really good football matches, I really do. The three games were always going to be hard for us because MLS is up and running. And the standard’s good because you look at the American national team, they’re no mucks.”

----------------------------------------------------------thought for the day-------------------------------------------------------------

As a side note: great to know that Lambert thinks that the US National Team are no "mucks"; couldn't ask for a better compliment; flippin 'eck. Ask a stupid question - get a stupid answer...

To view the official news release click on the link below.

http://www.columbian.com/weblogs/portland-timbers/2012/jul/25/timbers-official-news-release-timbers-2-villa-2-vi/

Some quotes from Lambert after the game...

Aston Villa Quotes

Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert

----------------------------------------------------------thought for the day-------------------------------------------------------------

As a side note: great to know that Lambert thinks that the US National Team are no "mucks"; couldn't ask for a better compliment; flippin 'eck. Ask a stupid question - get a stupid answer...

Oi Villa...

2012-07-24T01:08:44Z

Best of luck lads against PTFC tomorrow night!

Give us a chance and tie your legs together before the start...

Hoping for a blinding game; been awhile since I've watched an English side live... unlucky for Blackburn Rovers this year and wish Villa all the best ---STILL one of the few sides to stay in the PL; congrats and continued best success with Lambert!. Unlucky for Nawich to lose him... (I used to live in Norfolk but couldn't stand the Canaries)...

Is it a fair statement that Lambert will bring a more 'dutch' feel to this side now that McLeish and his negative style of play was sacked?

We ourselves are just recovering from having John Spencer get sacked...

I blog Portland Timbers footy over here for the Columbian Newspaper in Vancouver, Washington, about 10 miles north of Portland... here's my twitter link if anyone is interested in following the Timbers this year... ;)

https://twitter.com/ChrisGluckPTFC

Ta...

Best of luck lads against PTFC tomorrow night!

Give us a chance and tie your legs together before the start...

Is it a fair statement that Lambert will bring a more 'dutch' feel to this side now that McLeish and his negative style of play was sacked?

We ourselves are just recovering from having John Spencer get sacked...

https://twitter.com/ChrisGluckPTFC

Ta...